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il china's debt Bernd 2025-11-09 13:50:36 No. 21263
I always get myself thinking about the debt of the US, which is enormous, but out of curiosity I decided to check the overall debt-to-gdp of China - a debt that includes households, government, private companies- and they have 300% of their GDP in debt. Meanwhile like Japan and S. Korea they have a rapidly shrinking population that is getting old, leading to more social expenditure and a smaller economy in the future. The US has both lower overall debt-to-gdp and a population in slower decline. Europeans have in general low debt-to-gdp and a country like Germany is even a creditor after decades of surplus. So while china is an enormous manufacturing powerhouse and a net exporter, it seems that they are fundamentally on a dead end. Is my view wrong? What they are doing to overcome this huge debt?
>>21263 >I always get myself thinking about the debt of the US As one does.
yeah we've seen this show already with japan were the confused whites cant see the birth rates and debt, only mystical samurais and asian tiger economies they never solved the middle income trap, and worse they are a one party state. greece or US can vote in some one else in 2008 regardless of whether it changes anything or not, but the last major economic power we saw with an economic crisis was USSR
>>21263 I guess the issue of their slight deflationary environment over the last few years is adding onto that, usually this debt would have depreciated quite a bit due to inflation lifting all other stats around it.
in the basics you're correct the main question is when shit hits the fan

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>What they are doing to overcome this huge debt?
VPN fag
1- Most of these countries have debt in their own currencies, and all of these countries have strong sovereignty over their currencies. They can control the liquidity, the value, the interest rates, the tax rates, etc, of this currency. So this debt means little. Murka has an even better position since it has the world currency, which means it can export inflation to other countries. Argentina is an example of a dire situation, since they keep making debt in other currencies. Also reminder that China and Japan owns most of murka's debt. 2- Having trade deficit, budget deficit, increase in debt are a problem and will kill most countries. Having only one or even two of these is bearable for any developed country. Murka manages to have the three of them, but then again it has the world currency, it's a country that is sovereign in food and energy, so it simply doesn't have to worry about inflation. Food inflation will collapse any government because it affects people directly, but at the same time food can be sourced from many countries. Nobody goes to war over food these days. Energy inflation due to fossil fuel imports has a more indirect effect since it affects businesses, not people, but this will cause businesses to stop hiring, increasing unemployment (and also loss of tax revenue). But at the same time sourcing energy abroad is much more problematic. China is working hard to be energy sovereign. Meanwhile eurangutans are undermining their own interests by forbidding any kind of native energy source.
Debt is not such a big problem if your country has its own currency you can just buy it off the market and delete it
>>21282 Actually half of the US debt is held by the US government. About 1/4 is held by foreign governments, of which Japan and China are the biggest holders.
Robots and AI will x10 china gdp in like 5 years so doesnt matter.
>>21272 What, do you think I am Chinese using an Israeli proxy?
>>21299 So they are betting on a technological innovation to get out of the hole? What if they don't end up being a leader in discovery, application and adoption of the innovation? >>21282 Correct me if I'm wrong, but if china simply "prints more money", writing off debts, people's savings are wiped out and wages hit rock bottom, no? The government then loses all legitimacy.
>>21322 Oh, that was me, I am in California but I have a vpn on my computer that turns on automatically. I wasn't fake country balling.
Isn't like most of the population in China still peasant farmers? That means there's like a billion people to industrialize/grow your economy with. America has no room for growth because of low birth numbers and now we're kicking out the immigrants. How will you grow to pay off your debt? It all requires growth, as I understand it.
>>21438 Why would you be able to "industrialize" your farmers? Energy is what drives the economy
>>21328 The whole world is raching to AI super intelligence, casual 50 billion dollar investments are made every day for data centers. Its not only china betting on this, but also Taiwan, South Korea and USA. If AI and robotics dont work out then we are screwed beyond imagination.
>>21440 Why wouldn't you? Your following sentence seems like a non sequitur.
>>21443 Because you talk like having farmers is always a valuable resource. But they have so many farmers because they are behind in the race. Nominal growth is pretty useless. Americans were arguably richer with 150 million people in the 1950s
>>21445 You're fucking retarded. Also please stop following me around or at least give the common decency of explaining yourself without hand waving away my arguments.
>>21441 Capex will expand until it won't anymore, once the contraction is done the pendulum swings in the other direction again once more, the survivors will take it all. ER guidance remains rather strong and AI is starting to have good success outside of just being a chatbot, i.e. protein folding, weather forecasts or optimizing self-driving. And once this is done, some other expenditure increasing stuff will carry over like private rocketry or quantums, flying taxis or something completely different. Before AI it was obviously all the covid profiteers, with some short intermezzos by electric vehicles until electrics trucks rolling down the hill on their own called in the top there. It's an endless cycle of innovation, swinging like a pendulum. The internet didn't went away and you still made a nice profit if you theoretically invested all your funds at the top of '08.
>>21446 >Also please stop following me around These are my first two posts on this board, schizo
>>21438 China's birthrate is plummeting as fast or faster than the US. Having a large workforce is both an asset and liability. China can compete more effectively as a developing country, but it needs to clean itself up if it wants to retain its talent. It is a big and culturally isolated country however, and can still retain talent. The question will be if China's country actually wants the accountability that comes with being a developed nation. Most leaders don't.
Why should countries care about debt?